翟崑：东南亚应该成为中美合作的平台
翟崑
北京大学国际关系学院教授、中国论坛特约专家
原瑞辰
大连海事大学硕士研究生
尽管白宫高级官员警告称，俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的战争“可能随时爆发”，但印太地区仍是美国外交政策的主要焦点。白宫于上周五公布了令外界期待已久的印太战略，在其中明确表示东南亚将是地区战略的核心。在拜登政府制定上述战略的一年内，中美在东南亚的竞争持续升温。这份战略文件称，美国的目标“不是改变中国，而是塑造中国的战略环境，在世界上建立最有利于美国及其盟友和伙伴的影响力平衡”。尽管美国官员否认印太战略是一项中国战略，但美国利用联盟来更好地遏制中国的企图昭然若揭。
在美国精心勾勒宏大叙事的同时，中国已经循序渐进地在东南亚取得了一系列实质性进展。去年，中国和东盟同意在地区数字、蓝色和低碳经济方面加强合作。12月中老铁路的开通标志着中国-中南半岛经济走廊和泛亚铁路建设迈出了重要一步。11月，中国和东盟正式将关系提升为全面战略伙伴关系，承诺开展全方位合作。然而，双方联合声明中最重要的一点似乎被外界忽视：习近平主席明确表示，中国支持东盟印太展望，探讨同“一带一路”倡议开展互利合作，增进地区国家间战略互信和合作共赢。
令人遗憾的是，与此同时，东南亚正面临着美国更深的军事介入，南海行为准则谈判进展缓慢。不过，尽管拜登政府以遏制中国为目标，希望重构印太地区格局，东盟展望却为各方描绘了一个更美好的未来。事实上，这可能开启中美在东南亚相互包容的局面，促进包容性的地区合作。
东盟印太展望由印尼起草，受到东盟成员国的推动。尽管美国、日本、印度、澳大利亚和欧盟均制定了自己的印太战略，但东盟提出的印太概念获得最广泛的认同。东盟在框架中概述的关键合作领域、相关术语和定义相当中性，强调包容性，反对将中国排除在地区秩序之外。
与美国、日本和其他国家强调的“基于规则的国际秩序”不同，东盟印太战略有四大要点。第一，由东盟国家界定印度-太平洋地区的地理和经济空间；第二，坚持传统的“东盟方式”而不是法律文件或条约；第三，利用现有的东盟规范和机制，如《东南亚友好合作条约》、东亚峰会、东盟地区论坛和东盟防长扩大会议；第四，尊重国际法，如《联合国宪章》《东盟宪章》。
《展望》中大部分观点原则符合东盟一贯的立场和行动。美国和中国均支持东盟印太展望。因此，我们为中国“一带一路”倡议和美国印太战略找到了在东南亚地区对接的平台。
中国的发展目标仍然是内向型的，希望维持综合国力的稳步增长。因此，中国从根本上不希望与美国进行战略竞争，相反积极推动建立以相互尊重、互利共赢为核心特征的“新型大国关系”。而拜登政府虽未打破特朗普政府对中国作出的战略竞争对手的定位，但更加注重避免冲突，并在金融稳定、气候变化等领域寻求合作。东盟展望为中美奠定了进一步合作的基础，可供探索的空间相当大。
印尼有望在这方面发挥重要作用。中美双方都高度重视印尼。印尼总统佐科·维多多在最近的一次采访中表示，“印尼希望与中美两个伙伴的关系是互利的，这有助于世界和平与稳定。”印尼可在利用东盟展望解决大国思想冲突方面发挥前瞻性作用。最终，中美将不得不学会适应现状，即追求开放和包容的地区秩序符合它们各自最大利益。印尼应与中美开展沟通协调，通过东盟展望使双方的目标趋于交汇。
此外，印尼还可确定推进合作与持续优化的领域。例如，中国和东盟于去年10月发表《关于加强中国－东盟绿色和可持续发展合作的联合声明》。此外，美国国际开发署和东盟于9月签署《区域发展合作协定》。两项协定都强调东盟在地区合作和一体化进程中的作用，可与东盟展望相互对接。印尼可就此入手，为中美两国间务实合作穿针引线。
简言之，美国试图拉拢东盟国家遏制中国是不明智的。东盟已经意识到中国的崛起不可阻挡。如果东南亚成为中美合作的平台，其便可在管理两国关系的同时，汇集两个大国的力量促进自身发展。美国人似乎不愿承认中国的崛起给东盟国家带来了机遇。如果美国精心营造的叙事最终只说服了自己，它将沦为笑柄。现在，东南亚已向美国印太战略的规划者和建设者发出了一份诱人的邀约，期待美国能够展现出真正的领导力。
As Biden seeks to contain China’s regional influence, Asean can offer a platform for Sino-US cooperation instead
The Indo-Pacific region remains the primary focus of US foreign policy, despite warnings by senior US officials that a war between Ukraine and Russia could “start at any time”. In its long-awaited Indo-Pacific Strategy, revealed last Friday, the US made clear that Southeast Asia would be at the centre of its plans for the region.
While this strategy has been taking shape, the contest between the US and China in the region has been heating up. The newly-released document indicates that the US’ goal “is not to change China, but to shape the strategic environment in which it operates, building a balance of influence in the world that is maximally favourable to the United States, our allies and partners”.
Although US officials have denied that the Indo-Pacific Strategy is in fact a China strategy, it is pretty clear that the US intends to use alliances to better contain China.
As the US outlines its elaborate grand narrative, China has already made substantial progress in Southeast Asia by taking a step-by-step approach. Last year, China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) stepped up cooperation in the development of the region’s digital, blue and low-carbon economies. The opening of the China-Laos railway in December also marked a step towards the realisation of a China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor and Trans-Asian Railway.
In November, the two sides officially upgraded their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, promising all-around cooperation. However, the most crucial aspect of their agreement is often overlooked: President Xi Jinping made it clear that China supports the Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, the bloc’s own regional strategy, as well as cooperation between the Belt and Road Initiative and the Outlook.
Despite these offers of allyship pouring in, Southeast Asia is regrettably facing deeper US military involvement and slow progress in negotiations over the South China Sea code of conduct.
While US President Joe Biden wants to restructure the Indo-Pacific at China’s expense, the Asean Outlook paints a better future for all. Indeed, it may be the key to unlocking China-US mutual tolerance in Southeast Asia, with the potential for the two sides to promote inclusive regional cooperation.
The Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific was drafted by Indonesia and is promoted by Asean member states. Although the US, Japan, India, Australia and the EU have all developed their own Indo-Pacific strategies, the Asean concept is the one most universally accepted. In addition, the critical areas of cooperation and relevant terms and definitions outlined in the framework are fairly neutral, emphasising inclusiveness and opposing the exclusion of China.
Diverging from the “rules-based order” stressed by the US, Japan, and others, the Asean Indo-Pacific strategy has four main takeaways.
First, allow Asean states to define the geographical and economic space of the Indo-Pacific; second, adhere to the traditional “Asean way” instead of legal documents or treaties; third, use existing Asean norms and mechanisms, such as the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, the East Asia Summit, the Asean Regional Forum, and Asean Defence Minister’s Meeting-Plus; and fourth, respect international laws, such as the United Nations Charter and Asean Charter.
Most of the ideas and principles in the outlook are in line with the bloc’s behaviour. And both the US and China support it. Thus, we have found a connecting platform in Southeast Asia for China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the US’ Indo-Pacific Strategy.
China’s development goals remain inward-looking; it hopes to maintain steady growth in national strength. That is why China fundamentally does not want strategic competition with the US and promotes “a new type of major power relationship” with mutual respect and mutual benefit as its core features.
For its part, the US under Biden has not broken with the Trump administration’s position of seeing China as a strategic competitor, but Biden has put more focus on avoiding conflict and cooperating with China on the global economy and climate change. The Asean Outlook creates further common ground for China and the US. There is considerable room for future exploration.
Indonesia is likely to play a significant role here. Both China and the US attach great importance to it. President Joko Widodo said in a recent interview that Indonesia wants relations with China and the US, both of which are good friends, to be mutually beneficial and contribute towards world peace and stability.
Indonesia can play a forethoughtful role in promoting the Asean Outlook to resolve conflicts of ideas between the world’s major powers.
In the end, each side will have to learn to live with the status quo. It will be in their best interest to pursue an open and inclusive regional order. Indonesia should communicate and coordinate with the US and China, using the Asean Outlook to interweave the aims of both. It can also identify areas for practical cooperation and optimisation.
There is now, for example, an Asean-China Joint Statement on Enhancing Green and Sustainable Development Cooperation. At the same time, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and Asean signed the Regional Development Cooperation Agreement last September. Both pacts share links with the Asean Outlook through their emphasis on the bloc’s role in regional integration and cooperation. Indonesia can thread the needle here.
In a nutshell, it is not very smart for the US to attempt to win over Asean states in a bid to contain China. The association knows that China’s rise is unstoppable. If Southeast Asia instead serves as a platform for Sino-US cooperation, it can pool strength from two major powers for its own development while managing relations between them.
The Americans seem unwilling to recognise that China’s rise presents an opportunity for Asean states. And it would be a great joke if the US narrative fits only itself in it. Southeast Asia has placed an attractive offer on the desks of US architects and builders of the Indo-Pacific Strategy. It now expects the US to show authentic leadership.
Zhai Kun is a professor in the School of International Studies at Peking University and a China Forum Expert
本文2022年2月18日首发于《南华早报》